Global orange production for 2017/18 is forecast to tumble 6.0 million metric tons (tons) from the previous year to 47.8 million as unfavorable weather leads to smaller crops in Brazil and the United States. Similarly, fruit for processing is expected to fall, with orange juice production forecast down nearly 25 percent to 1.6 million tons (65 degrees brix) on the production slide in Brazil and the United States. Fresh exports are relatively unchanged while lower supplies are expected to affect processing oranges.
U.S. production is estimated to fall 24 percent to 3.5 million tons as unfavorable weather and citrus greening disease continue to cause fruit to drop in Florida before it is ripe. Exports, consumption, and fruit for processing are all lower with the smaller crop.
Brazil’s production is forecast to fall 23 percent to 16.0
million tons as unfavorable weather resulted in poor bloom and fruit set. Fresh orange consumption is up 173,000 tons while oranges for processing are down 5.0 million tons to 11.1 million. With the drop in oranges for processing, orange juice production is forecast to fall to 1.0 million tons (65 degrees brix).
Production in the European Union is estimated down 5 percent to 6.4 million tons on lower area and drought conditions. Imports (which are more than triple exports) are up 10 percent while oranges for processing and fresh consumption are both down on lower supplies.
Egypt’s production is estimated at a record 3.2 million tons, up 6 percent from last year on higher area. Exports are up 5 percent to a record 1.6 million tons on greater exportable supplies. Egypt accounts for one-third of global orange exports.
South Africa’s production is expected to rise 8 percent to 1.5 million tons. Exports are forecast at a record 1.2 million tons and account for 25 percent of global trade. The European Union remains the top market accounting for over 40 percent of South African orange exports.
Production in Turkey is forecast at a record 1.9 million tons due to favorable weather. Exports are also at a record on greater available supplies and high demand in Iraq and Russia.
Mexico’s production is projected down slightly, which is expected to lower fruit used for processing and consumption.
Morocco’s production is forecast only slightly lower at 1.0 million tons on favorable weather following early season drought. Exports and consumption are also forecast relatively flat on the minimal change in exportable supplies.
China’s production is projected up 300,000 tons to 7.3 million as a result of favorable weather and yields. Consumption is up on higher domestic supplies and robust import demand for high- quality and counter-seasonal fruit. South Africa and Egypt are the top two suppliers, accounting for 60 percent of imports.